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in AI and Deep Learning by (50.2k points)

Many technology optimists say that in 15 years the speed of computers will be comparable with the speed of the human brain. This is why they believe that computers will achieve the same level of intelligence as humans.

If Moore's law holds, then every 18 months we should expect to double CPU speed. 15 years is 180 months. So, we will have the doubling 10 times. Which means that in 15 years the computer will be 1024 times faster than they are now.

But is the speed the reason of the problem? If it is so, we would be able to build an AI system NOW, it would just 1024 times slower than in 15 years. Which means that to answer a question it will need 1024 seconds (17 minutes) instead of acceptable 1 second. But do we have now a strong (but slow) AI system? I think no. Even if now (2015) we give to a system 1 hour instead of 17 minutes, or 1 day, or 1 month or even 1 year, it still will be unable to answer complex questions formulated in natural language. So, it is not the speed that causes problems.

It means that in 15 years our intelligence will not be 1024 faster than now (because we have no intelligence). Instead, our "stupidity" will be 1024 times faster than now.

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We want both faster hardware and better algorithms. We need self-modifying meta-learning algorithms able to creating hypotheses and performing experiments to verify them (like humans do). Systems that are learning to learn and self-improving. Algorithms that can prove that given self-modification is optimal in a certain sense and will lead to even better self-modifications in the future. Systems that can reflect on and inspect their software. Such research is being done and may create superhuman intelligence in the future or even technological singularity as some belief. 

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